Chiefs GM Brett Veach believes one key variable made 2024 NFL Draft weaker and it won't change any time soon

NIL trend that won't stop any time soon

For those unfamiliar with the development of NIL in the college football world, here's a quick rundown:

The NCAA spent a century making sure that student athletes couldn't make a dime off their own name, image, and likeness for a litany of dumb (and inevitably ruled illegal) reasons. However, back in 2021, a new policy went into effect that allowed players to be compensated using their own name, image, and likeness. That meant players could now form various brand partnerships, sign contracts with promotional collectives affiliated with universities, and engage in simple revenue streams like profiting off their own YouTube channels for the first time.

That newfound compensation capabilities combined with unlimited transfers for student athletes (another new policy) has sparked a new major trend in college football. Athletes don't have to rush off to the NFL if they want to get paid. They can actually take a "safer" payday to stay put, or jump into the Transfer Portal and perhaps even pursue a raise for their services.

Chiefs General Manager Brett Veach Comments

It's one thing for Jim Nagy to comment briefly on the draft class in January. And it's another to talk about the concepts of NIL and the Transfer Portal changing the college football landscape. But when you hear directly from an NFL GM that NIL is having a significant effect on NFL Draft classes things feel a bit more real.

When asked about what he thought the 2024 NFL Draft class was going to be remembered for, Chiefs GM Brett Veach gave a somewhat surprising answer, diverting the conversation to NIL and it's effects on--not only this class--but classes in the future.

“One interesting perspective that I did find through this is just the NIL effect. So, you know, typically, when you're working through the fourth, fifth, sixth round, there's always interesting prospects and small school guys. But...what you're starting to see is, these fourth, fifth sixth round prospects are a little older, because they're staying and some of these underclassmen that get third, fourth round grades...they have the opportunity to stay in school...This will be a trend, where [draft classes] won't be as deep as they used to be. I mean, if you're a junior, and you have a third or fourth round grade, and you have an opportunity to stay in school and make money, you're going to go back, potentially stay in school. What happens is, I think the drop off from rounds three--the cut off line--I think the availability of young guys with potential that [used to come] out early...Those guys are staying now. So I think the drop off numbers are a little bit more extreme this year. And the players are a little bit older. So we have to work a little bit harder to find some young guys with upside that we really like...And when we were going through the board...I checked with our guys, they were like, ‘Yeah, these guys are a lot older.’...It's going to make every draft a little tougher to work with on the back end.”

"It's going to make every draft a little tougher." This is not going to just be a one-year thing. Every year since about 2010 the number of players to declare early for the NFL Draft had been increasing, with multiple classes exceeding 100 early entrants. However, this year, only 58 players declared early. That's the lowest number since 2011.

And this won't likely stop any time soon. The college football landscape is constantly changing, and with every change there seems to be more money to be had for the players. As this trend continues, players will feel less and less urgency to rush to the NFL, inevitably getting buried on a depth chart somewhere for the majority of them. Instead, they can star on their college football teams and make a decent wage while they're add it.

This new NIL era is great for the players. But it will certainly make NFL Draft classes a bit weaker and more shallow every single year moving forward. It will be interesting to see what effect this has on hit rates and values of late round picks in the NFL in the future.

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